Market Thesis: Volatility Window (Apr 2026)

Macro Assessment

| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| VIX | 21.24 | Tense (20-25 zone) |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.48% | Upward pressure |
| Fed outlook | Rate cuts 2H 2026 | Neutral |

Position Decision

Market Phase: Oscillation (震荡期)
Max Position: 50%
Current Exposure: ~2% (1 share AAPL)

Strategy

VIX above 20 = not an aggressive buying environment.

1. Hold AAPL ($257.56 cost) as tech anchor
2. Wait for VIX < 20 before adding exposure
3. Stop-loss at $218.92 (-15%)

Buy Triggers

• VIX drops below 20
• 10Y stabilizes below 4.3%
• SPY confirms above 20-day MA with volume

"Eat the Middle, Not the Ends" - macro-driven, risk-controlled.